2019 Oil predictions: Ernst & Young Weighs In!

Coming off of 2018, where the oil and gas industry hit a four year high, many are optimistic about the future.

Industry experts from Ernst & Young discussed their predictions and expectations for the oil and gas industry rolling into 2019.

Deborah Byers, U.S. Energy Leader, had this to say:

"This era of oil and gas abundance coupled with the nimbleness of North American producers has created a ceiling for how high oil prices can rise before supply catches up to temper them,” Byers said. “While the volatility of oil prices is always a consideration, companies are being cautious in their capital allocation strategies and are maintaining very conservative price outlooks that should insulate planning from recent pricing shifts.”

She also added, "The investment community has seen behind the curtain, and now believes that global balancing can’t bolster low oil prices as quickly as previously thought. While oil and gas companies were historically rewarded for getting the resource to market, now they are judged on cash flow. This is coloring capital spending decisions across the sector and increasing the necessity for all investments to prove their value in a short time horizon. Ultimately, E&Ps face the challenge of showing investors they can operate with positive cash flow and can continue to do so even if prices fall."

Another industry expert, Pat Jelinek (Oil and Gas Partner, EY) also weighed in on the 2019 predictions, specifically in regards to the majors:

“The majors will always look for ways to optimize and integrate their portfolios where possible and generally already know the projects they want to prioritize,” Jelinek explained. “In 2019, big oil companies will continue focusing on developing their operations as efficiently as possible while also lining up the right customers and logistics for their product as well as maintaining their license to operate.”

Another great point mentioned by Jelinek was the importance of digital adoption in regards to increasing operational efficiency and just how integral that is for companies coming into 2019.

He states, "As more and more successful pilot efforts demystify digital and demonstrate proven success in the industry, we expect companies will increasingly lean on these tools to decrease costs, increase safety, optimize assets and minimize downtime. In the U.S., the majors are focused on ensuring they capture every ounce of value they can out of the hydrocarbons they’re producing. Globally, capital efficiency, license to operate and hydrocarbon demand are paramount. Specifically, with the rise in global supply and the variability of contract durations, there is noted focus on market creation and product and market selection, including a recognized focus on sustainability and portfolio implications."